Net flow rates versus roll rates as non-performing consumer loans forecasting methodologies

نویسندگان

چکیده

Roll rates and net flow can be seen as the evolution of ageing accounts receivable Markov chains. They are accepted methodologies to model behavior non-performing consumer loans by buckets predict losses, but we find that quite often they wrongly used interchangeable concepts, although roll track individual across in consecutive months just compare months. We determine their matrices transition probabilities analyze them both stationary steady-state conditions. Net have many advantages over rates, a important finding for financial institutions supervisors is historical not conservative forecasting: when level new delinquencies soars, contemporary will tend lower than would conditions, creating feeling false confidence leading underestimation future losses.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1886-516X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.5489